Dr. Jessica Ho discussed the
determinants (fertility, mortality, and migration) of demographic transition
and its impact on global health. Here we would like to provide two examples of
demographic transition: one is the aging situation in China, and the other is
the migration influx in Europe.
Gray dawn: the aging crisis in China
The older adult population in China
has been growing dramatically in the past few decades. In 2000, nearly 90
million adults age 65 or above were living in China, and this number increased
to 202 million in 2013. The elderly population is predicted to increase to over
300 million by 2050, accounting for 30% of the population. As the elderly
population increase, so as the prevalence of Non-communicable diseases (NCD) such
as CVD and diabetes. In addition, the older populations are more likely to
suffer from several type of NCDs and more severe complication that can be more
expensive to cure.
Several factors contributed to the
rapid aging population in China. First, the average life expectancy in China
has been improved tremendously—from 68 in 1981 to 74 today, because of the
robust economic growth over the past few decades. Second, baby boomers, who
were Chinese in the 1950s and 1960s, has started to fall into the older adults
category. Third, an extremely low fertility rate due to the “one child” policy further
speed up the demographic transition in China.
Recently, China ended its
decades-old “one child” policy so that
all married couples would be allowed to have two children. Demographers argued
that this decision might be a step in the right direction, but probably too
little too late to make a big difference in the aging trajectory happening in
China. One of the concerns is that many eligible couples would not act on it,
as the cost in raising children especially in urban setting is very high in
China. Even in rural China, families which have been exempt from the “one
child” policy are not willing to have more children because of the costs and
efforts.
Still, many
citizens and social media thumb up for this announcement. This adjustment on
birth restrictions might lead to a decline in the trend of birth tourism in
recent years that many Chinese parents went overseas to places like Hong Kong
and the U.S. to have a second child.
It might be too
early to jump to the conclusion at this point. The debate over whether
abandoning one-child policy will be effective to solve China’s aging crisis
will be going on for years. But overall, China is a country that should be
watching over the next few decades.
Is the migrant crisis an opportunity for an aging and demographic decline Europe?
Today, the world faces the largest
migrant crisis since World War II. Due to war, civil conflict, persecution,
climate change, and poverty, millions of people risk their lives in the
Mediterranean Sea in order to flee from their homes in the Middle East and
sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. According to UNHCR (2015), 34 percent of these
migrants are from Syria, 12 percent are from Afghanistan, 12 percent are from
Eritrea, 5 percent are from Somalia, and 5 percent are from Nigeria.
The UN estimated that number of
migrants entering Europe will continue to grow; however, the European Union
(EU) hasn’t come out with the long-term solution to tackle migrant crisis yet.
The EU proposed to use mandatory quotas to allocate migrants across its 28
member states. However, since there are costs (such as housing, healthcare,
education, and other social welfare services) associated with accommodating
migrants, some governments in the EU rejected the proposal.
It
is undeniable that hosting migrants can be costly in Europe. But, isn’t the
migrants influx a good opportunity for an aging and demographic decline Europe?
Europe’s
aging population has gradually increased, mainly due to low birthrates, high
levels of young people emigration, and high life expectancies. As a result,
working-age population has tremendously decreased. According to United Nations’
Population Division (2013) the populations in the Baltic countries and Bulgaria
has been shrunk by more than 15 percent, Croatia by 10 percent, and Romania and
Hungary by 5 percent. At the same time, the populations who are above 65 have
increased by more than a third between 1990 and 2010 in the countries of
Central Europe and the Baltics. The aging and demographic decline is likely to
accelerate. This will harm the economy and demand more resources to accommodate
aging population (such as, old age pensions and healthcare services). Migrants come to Europe with children,
skills, motivation, and innovative ideas. Therefore, it is now the time for
Europe to accept migrants and turn migrant crisis into an opportunity.
Reference:
Wang, X.-Q., &
Chen, P.-J. (2014). Population ageing challenges health care in China. The
Lancet, 383(9920), 870. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60443-8
Wu, Y., &
Dang, J. (2013). China Report of The Development on Aging Cause
(2013)-2013-Yearbook-SOCIAL SCIENCES ACADEMIC PRESS(CHINA). Retrieved October
20, 2015, from
http://www.ssapchina.com/ssapzx/c_00000009000200010005/d_0759.htm
